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▼ Japan Ruling Bloc Projected To Lose Majority In Upper House Election Drubbing
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Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito, were projected to lose their majority in the Upper House, media reports said Sunday, a defeat that could trigger Ishiba’s resignation or political deadlock in parliament.
The election — which came just nine months after Ishiba took office — was seen as a rebuke of the prime minister and the LDP, which has now been dealt drubbings in two national elections under his leadership following October’s loss of its majority in a Lower House poll.
A variety of scenarios now await the country, from an enlarged ruling coalition to an opposition-led chamber, or even a minority leadership in both chambers. Pressure is likely to rise for Ishiba to resign, although it was too early to tell if that would be the case.
Jiji Press said it would be “tough” for the ruling block to retain a majority in the chamber soon after polls closed nationwide at 8 p.m., while NHK characterized the situation as “dire” for the ruling camp. If it were to lose its majority, it would be the first time in history that an LDP-led ruling bloc lost majorities in both chambers of parliament, according to the broadcaster.
LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama told a TV program just after projections emerged that he would refrain from commenting on how he should take responsibility for the outcome. The party, he added, fell short in thoroughly explaining its social security and consumption tax policies.
According to an NHK projection shortly after polls closed, the LDP-Komeito coalition was expected to win between 32 and 53 seats, potentially leaving it short of the 50 it needs to retain a majority in the chamber.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), meanwhile, was projected to secure between 18 to 30 seats, likely up from the 22 lawmakers who faced re-election.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which had four lawmakers facing re-election, was expected to gain between 14 and 21 seats.
The election — which came just nine months after Ishiba took office — was seen as a rebuke of the prime minister and the LDP, which has now been dealt drubbings in two national elections under his leadership following October’s loss of its majority in a Lower House poll.
A variety of scenarios now await the country, from an enlarged ruling coalition to an opposition-led chamber, or even a minority leadership in both chambers. Pressure is likely to rise for Ishiba to resign, although it was too early to tell if that would be the case.
Jiji Press said it would be “tough” for the ruling block to retain a majority in the chamber soon after polls closed nationwide at 8 p.m., while NHK characterized the situation as “dire” for the ruling camp. If it were to lose its majority, it would be the first time in history that an LDP-led ruling bloc lost majorities in both chambers of parliament, according to the broadcaster.
LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama told a TV program just after projections emerged that he would refrain from commenting on how he should take responsibility for the outcome. The party, he added, fell short in thoroughly explaining its social security and consumption tax policies.
According to an NHK projection shortly after polls closed, the LDP-Komeito coalition was expected to win between 32 and 53 seats, potentially leaving it short of the 50 it needs to retain a majority in the chamber.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), meanwhile, was projected to secure between 18 to 30 seats, likely up from the 22 lawmakers who faced re-election.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which had four lawmakers facing re-election, was expected to gain between 14 and 21 seats.
DPP Secretary-General Kazuya Shimba told a TV program that he “believes the party won’t join the ruling coalition,” Jiji reported.
The small right-wing party Sanseito, which had just one lawmaker facing re-election, stunned observers with a strong showing that was expected to bring it 10 to 22 seats in the Upper House. The party, which currently has three seats in the lower chamber, has voiced hopes of joining any coalition government after the next Lower House election.
Nippon Ishin no Kai was projected to win between six to nine seats, while the Japanese Communist Party was projected to net between three and five. Reiwa Shinsengumi was expected to win two to four seats.
As LDP executives — Moriyama, policy chief Itsunori Onodera and election committee chairman Seiji Kihara — walked into the press room at party headquarters, gloomy looks clouding their faces, they were short on words.
Ishiba was slated to speak to news outlets later in the evening.
Media polls had indicated the ruling coalition could lose its long-held majority in the upper chamber, with the projections becoming increasingly dire as the campaign period wound down.
Since the October Lower House election, which saw the ruling bloc fall short of a majority, the LDP had been unable to rehabilitate its standing in the eyes of many voters. Sunday’s vote offered a snapshot of the current views of Ishiba, who also serves as LDP president and whose political standing has long been tarnished by low approval ratings.
With 75 of its seats not contested in the Upper House, 50 had been the magic number for the coalition to retain a majority in the chamber. Komeito’s declining fortunes, apparent in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, had also contributed to a growing sense of anxiety.
The last time an LDP government lost a majority in the Upper House was in 2007, during the first stint of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned soon after that election.
Meanwhile, the opposition was expected to make strong gains nationwide, most notably in the 32 single-seat constituencies key to the election’s outcome.
The CDP was likely to maintain its position as the largest opposition force in both chambers of parliament, further narrowing its gap with the LDP. The opposition camp, however, remains largely fragmented.
Two issues had shaped the 17-day campaign period — rising prices and policies related to the foreign community.
While all opposition parties have called for tax cuts to ease the sting of inflation, the ruling coalition pledged cash handouts for everyone, including foreign residents, and targeted support for child-rearing and low-income households.
Regardless of the final tally of seats, economic issues will remain at the top of the agenda in the coming weeks and months.
Any successful push from the opposition to slash the consumption tax is very likely to put Japan under even more fiscal strain, analysts have warned.
In addition, the United States is poised to raise its “reciprocal” tariff rate on Japan from the current 10% to 25% on Aug. 1, unless a deal is reached with the administration of President Donald Trump.
On multiple occasions in recent weeks, the U.S. president has openly complained about the lack of progress in negotiations with Japan, which has achieved no tangible outcome despite months of talks.
A period of political instability is expected whether Ishiba chooses to step down or form a new government with the cooperation of an opposition party. Either scenario would make any last-minute deal to avert the 25% tariff rate less likely.
Sunday’s voter turnout stood at 26.65% as of 6 p.m., which was down 0.71 percentage points from the previous Upper House election in 2022.
On the other hand, more than 25% of eligible voters cast their ballots ahead of Sunday’s election, totaling some 26 million and setting a record high for national elections, according to the internal affairs ministry.
Nippon Ishin no Kai was projected to win between six to nine seats, while the Japanese Communist Party was projected to net between three and five. Reiwa Shinsengumi was expected to win two to four seats.
As LDP executives — Moriyama, policy chief Itsunori Onodera and election committee chairman Seiji Kihara — walked into the press room at party headquarters, gloomy looks clouding their faces, they were short on words.
Ishiba was slated to speak to news outlets later in the evening.
Media polls had indicated the ruling coalition could lose its long-held majority in the upper chamber, with the projections becoming increasingly dire as the campaign period wound down.
Since the October Lower House election, which saw the ruling bloc fall short of a majority, the LDP had been unable to rehabilitate its standing in the eyes of many voters. Sunday’s vote offered a snapshot of the current views of Ishiba, who also serves as LDP president and whose political standing has long been tarnished by low approval ratings.
With 75 of its seats not contested in the Upper House, 50 had been the magic number for the coalition to retain a majority in the chamber. Komeito’s declining fortunes, apparent in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, had also contributed to a growing sense of anxiety.
The last time an LDP government lost a majority in the Upper House was in 2007, during the first stint of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned soon after that election.
Meanwhile, the opposition was expected to make strong gains nationwide, most notably in the 32 single-seat constituencies key to the election’s outcome.
The CDP was likely to maintain its position as the largest opposition force in both chambers of parliament, further narrowing its gap with the LDP. The opposition camp, however, remains largely fragmented.
Two issues had shaped the 17-day campaign period — rising prices and policies related to the foreign community.
While all opposition parties have called for tax cuts to ease the sting of inflation, the ruling coalition pledged cash handouts for everyone, including foreign residents, and targeted support for child-rearing and low-income households.
Regardless of the final tally of seats, economic issues will remain at the top of the agenda in the coming weeks and months.
Any successful push from the opposition to slash the consumption tax is very likely to put Japan under even more fiscal strain, analysts have warned.
In addition, the United States is poised to raise its “reciprocal” tariff rate on Japan from the current 10% to 25% on Aug. 1, unless a deal is reached with the administration of President Donald Trump.
On multiple occasions in recent weeks, the U.S. president has openly complained about the lack of progress in negotiations with Japan, which has achieved no tangible outcome despite months of talks.
A period of political instability is expected whether Ishiba chooses to step down or form a new government with the cooperation of an opposition party. Either scenario would make any last-minute deal to avert the 25% tariff rate less likely.
Sunday’s voter turnout stood at 26.65% as of 6 p.m., which was down 0.71 percentage points from the previous Upper House election in 2022.
On the other hand, more than 25% of eligible voters cast their ballots ahead of Sunday’s election, totaling some 26 million and setting a record high for national elections, according to the internal affairs ministry.
- 20/7 19:41
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