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Japan’s Leader Is Following A Trumpian Playbook On The Coronavirus

  • Category:Event
Geopolitical wags can’t help but wonder whether botched coronavirus responses constitute a “Chernobyl moment” for China or the United States. In Japan, though, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is facing a Fukushima problem.
  Comparisons to Tokyo’s opaque, deer-in-the-headlights reaction to a 2011 nuclear crisis nearly 150 miles away are popping up more than Abe would like. That crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant saw a previous government play down radioactive threats to avoid public panic, deflect blame and criticize the foreign media.
  Japan’s handling of the covid-19 outbreak seems eerily reminiscent. Just ask Kiyoshi Kurokawa, who headed the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission. Kurokawa says Japanese officialdom today, just as then, seems “paralyzed” as a catastrophe unfolds in plain view.

Abe’s sliding approval ratings show voters are worried about his unsteady handling of a crisis that, until recently, seemed to give Japan a pass. Even today, Japan’s coronavirus caseload seems negligible compared with the United States, Spain or Italy, with more than 10,700 confirmed cases.

The caveat, though, is that, like the United States, Japan is testing only a small fraction of its 126 million people. Germany, for example, is testing 17 times more people than Japan. Without an expansive and robust testing infrastructure, there’s really no way to tell the magnitude of Japan’s outbreak, or lack thereof.

Yet the timidity at the very top is adding to the sense of disorientation. All along, Abe has approached the coronavirus in downright Trumpian terms — as more of economic or public relations challenge than an epidemiological one. As such, he often seems more a prisoner to events than a bold leader. The move on March 24 to postpone the Summer Olympics is a case in point: National teams withdrawing forced Abe’s hand.

Abe hoped to change the narrative on April 7, declaring a “state of emergency.” That same day, he unveiled a record $1 trillion economic rescue equivalent to 20 percent of gross domestic product.

Confusion reigned, though. The emergency declaration included just seven of Japan’s prefectures and vague suggestions about social distancing. Coronavirus cases continued to spike, forcing Abe to broaden the policy to all prefectures. This, too, seemed reactive. It came one day after a health ministry report warned of 400,000 coronavirus deaths unless authorities take drastic measures.

Doubts about the stimulus plan also inspired an about-face. Initially, Abe’s government offered about $2,780 to families that could prove clear coronavirus-related losses. Takers would have to navigate Japan’s notorious bureaucracy — and risk infection visiting local administrative offices. By April 16, Team Abe decided to give $930 to everyone.

Such waffling “reinforces a negative narrative for Abe that his government’s response to the crisis has been slow,” Eurasia Group wrote in an April 16 report. As such, “many local political leaders have moved independently to tackle the outbreak.”

None with more fanfare than Hokkaido Gov. Naomichi Suzuki. The leader of Japan’s northernmost main island has declared two states of emergency. The first, on Feb. 28, came as Tokyo was still insisting the 2020 Olympics was still on for a July start.

Suzuki became a national folk hero for decisive steps to close schools, cancel large-scale gatherings and ask residents to shelter in place. Within two weeks, new cases were down to one or two per day. Suzuki lifted the order on March 19. Then came the second wave of cases, leading to a new emergency decree on April 12.

A similar chain of events played out in the South Korean city of Daegu. All this could be a cautionary tale as China accelerates efforts to reopen the economy after months of lockdown. The same applies to a Trump administration hellbent on restoring an air of normalcy in some areas as early as May 1.

None of this is to say Tokyo, Osaka or Sapporo, Hokkaido’s biggest city, are going the New York route. The Japanese have long been enthusiastic face-mask wearers and consumers of hand sanitizer. Hugging and handshakes run afoul of cultural norms. Japan also has a top-notch health-care system that champions preventative medicine.

Yet it seems fanciful to think Japan will sit out this pandemic. It is absolutely crucial that Abe’s government take testing more seriously. Even Tokyo’s goal to test 20,000 people per day at some point lacks audacity and urgency.

Instead, Team Abe is prioritizing the economy and spin over public health. Look no further than the government earmarking $22 million for artificial intelligence tools and other strategies to locate and rebut criticism of Tokyo’s coronavirus response.

If only Japan would harness technology to raise its epidemiological game. In one fell swoop, Abe could save hundreds of thousands of lives, boost the economy and halt these Fukushima parallels once and for all.
 



By William Pesek
 

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