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Fukushima Water Discharge Unlikely To Impact Tokyo-Seoul Ties: Expert

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The release into the Pacific Ocean of treated radioactive water from a crippled nuclear power plant in northeastern Japan is unlikely to have a major impact on Tokyo-Seoul relations and become a key issue in next spring's general election in South Korea, according to a South Korean scholar.

Polls in South Korea show the main opposition Democratic Party's attacks on President Yoon Suk Yeol for giving a tacit nod to the water discharge have not won broad public support, partly due to the International Atomic Energy Agency's conclusion that the Japanese action complies with global safety standards.

"The party is attacking Japan and the Yoon administration with the water discharge but apparently using it as a political issue, rather than a scientifically verified issue -- a tactic China is employing," Park Jung Jin, a professor of international relations at Tsuda University in Tokyo, said in a recent interview.

Unlike China, which has condemned the discharge from the Fukushima Daiichi plant that commenced on Aug. 24, the South Korean government has said it sees no scientific problem with the release though it neither supports nor approves of it.

Referring to Beijing's import ban on Japanese seafood, Park said, "There is a mood in South Korea that the Chinese reaction is excessive."

China is the biggest market for Japanese fisheries products, followed by Hong Kong, the United States, Taiwan and South Korea, according to Japanese government data.

"Seafood safety has drawn attention in South Korea, but I do not expect the Democratic Party's anti-radioactive water campaign to maintain momentum until the National Assembly election slated for April 2024," Park said.

"Given the length of time before the election and a possible shift in Beijing's stance in light of the importance of Japan-China relations, especially at the time of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, it would be difficult for the party to keep pressuring the Yoon administration with this issue," he said.

In South Korean polls released Sept. 1, over 70 percent of respondents opposed or were concerned about the Fukushima water discharge, while a Gallup Korea poll showed the same day that the support rate for the Democratic Party had fallen 5 percentage points from a week earlier to 27 percent, the lowest level since Yoon took office in May 2022.

In a Realmeter poll released Monday, Yoon's approval rating had dropped 2.2 points from a week earlier to 35.4 percent. On Aug. 28, Realmeter said his rating had risen 2 points to 37.6 percent, primarily due to a positive public evaluation of the first standalone summit involving South Korea, Japan and the United States at the Camp David presidential retreat near Washington.

Citing the latest result, a Realmeter analyst was quoted by Yonhap News Agency as saying the impact of the water discharge was "negligible" as the issue had been reflected in previous polls.

Even before the start of the water discharge, Yoon's support rating had been low. The Democratic Party has not fared well in polls, either, partly because leader Lee Jae Myung has been under investigationover a series of corruption allegations that he claims are fabricated.

Analysts are watching whether the president's People Power Party will win a majority in the National Assembly, currently controlled by the Democratic Party, at the general election, a litmus test for stability of the administration of Yoon, whose five-year term ends in 2027.

On Tokyo-Seoul ties, Park said Yoon has been avoiding exploiting issues linked to Japan -- such as the water discharge and wartime history -- for domestic political gain and trying to promote relations in a broader context in the face of Russia's war in Ukraine, an increasingly assertive China and North Korea's nuclear and missile development.

The scholar cited the agreement of Yoon, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden during the Camp David summit on Aug. 18 to institutionalize trilateral cooperation as a good example for managing what some see as a still fragile rapprochement between the United States' two principal allies in Asia.

"Setting up regular meetings between the leaders, foreign ministers, defense ministers, industry ministers and national security advisers of the three countries was significant because they will enhance communications and cooperation between South Korea and Japan," he said.

Asked if the Camp David agreement could be undermined if a post-Yoon administration focuses on history issues and launches an anti-Japan campaign, like Yoon's predecessor Moon Jae In, Park said the current administration should deepen and expand cooperation on security, the economy and other areas with Japan, the United States and other countries in the Indo-Pacific so Seoul and Tokyo can minimize disputes and continue to move relations forward.





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